When can we trust untrusted monitoring? A safety case sketch across collusion strategies

arXiv:2602.20628v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: AIs are increasingly being deployed with greater autonomy and capabilities, which increases the risk that a misaligned AI may be able to cause catastrophic harm. Untrusted monitoring -- using one untrusted model to oversee another -- is one approach to reducing risk. Justifying the safety of an untrusted monitoring deployment is challenging because d